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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Gov. Brown's Prop 30 Tax Below 50% in Two Major Polls

Above are the results from the PPIC poll.  Both Prop 30 (Brown's tax) and Prop 38 (Molly Munger school tax) are below 50%.  The Munger tax has been a loser all along but Prop 30 had been marginally ahead in prior polling.  More detail from the PPIC poll are below:

The LA Times-USC poll shows similar results:
You can see that poll in detail at:

If Prop 30 fails, trigger cuts are built into the current state budget.  UC would have a $250 million cut.  Tuition would likely be raised.  In theory, the legislature could repeal the trigger but the governor would not allow it.  Even if a trigger repeal somehow passed the legislature, there are not enough votes to override a veto.

Brown's action in 1978 at the time of Prop 13 - the major property cut initiative - is instructive.  He initially opposed Prop 13, albeit rather belatedly.  When it passed, he flipped and said he would make it work.  Brown even got qualified support from Howard Jarvis - the co-sponsor of Prop 13 - in the general election of Nov. 1978.

Here is Brown before the legislature just after Prop 13 passed:

Update: Maplight provides a summary of who is contributing to what initiative campaign for those interested in state politics.  Here is a way to follow Prop 30 and the other propositions on the ballot:

Update: An Arizona group with anonymous donors gave $11 million to the anti-Prop 30 campaign and the pro-Prop 32 (paycheck protection) campaign.  (The latter prop seems to be losing in the polls.)  A report indicates that the California Fair Political Practices Commission has filed a lawsuit to learn the donors' identities.  I doubt, even if the suit succeeded, that the donor's IDs would be known before Election Day.  See:
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/10/state-watchdog-agency-sues-shadowy-arizona-campaign-donor.html

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